My Plan

Shared 1 · 8–0 · Cincinnati wins Week 8 in overtime

Official Week 8 selection confirmed: CIN vs TEN. The official Circa October 31 entrant-level selection sheet identifies EAST WESTERN-7 — 16. BENGALS PK on page 3. The Bengals beat Tennessee 43–36 in overtime November 1, confirming EAST WESTERN-7 advances to Week 9 at 8–0. Used teams: PIT, KC, BUF, GB, JAX, NE, MIN, CIN. All nine other original entries are eliminated. Circa's Week 8 distribution records 350 Cincinnati selections (53.0% of 660), Washington 81, New England 55, Jacksonville 54, Dallas 49 and the Rams 37. Official Circa entrant sheet · page 3 · Week 8 official pick counts · Bengals official final recap. Cincinnati's 350 selections (53.0%) all advanced. Arizona's 33–30 overtime victory at Dallas eliminated the 49 Dallas selections; full contest-wide advancement remains unconfirmed until Week 8 ends.

Next four UNPLAYED contest legs: Week 9 Seattle vs Arizona (88/100, preferred; SEA approximately −11.5 and −750/−800 available November 1, vs San Francisco around −10 against Las Vegas) · Week 10 Indianapolis vs Miami (58/100, major risk; provisional only) · Week 11 Dallas vs Tennessee (84/100, provisional; watch after both teams' November 1 overtime games) · Thanksgiving-eve Rams vs Green Bay (provisional). Cincinnati's Week 8 best-use 94 is now historical after the win. Preserve Chicago for Christmas, Denver for Week 13, Detroit for Week 14, San Francisco for Week 17, and Houston for Week 18. Week 16 is now UNASSIGNED following confirmed Nov. 1 Lamar Jackson right-thumb surgery and injured-reserve decision (potentially season-ending). Baltimore vs Cleveland moves off the preferred path (provisional best-use 40/100, not win probability). Week 9 SEA–ARI market. Arizona's upset of Dallas increases Seattle's opponent risk, but available lines still favor Seattle over the SF alternative. Do not submit any Week 9 pick before final injury and availability confirmation.

Week 10 trade-risk update — Nov. 1, 12:08 p.m. ET: Indianapolis (2–5) traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner; NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported November 1 that a Jonathan Taylor trade is now considered more likely than not, despite the reported asking price being too high for interested clubs. No deal is confirmed; Taylor is active against Jacksonville today. IND vs MIA was 68/100 at noon (previously 72), but an in-progress Nov. 1 afternoon collapse prompted a further downgrade to 58/100. The earlier 72 scenario is outdated even if Taylor stays. A trade would force another immediate re-ranking. Earlier IND −7 is a lookahead, not an established Week 10 game-week market. Important correction: the previously cited Rams @ Arizona ~87% win probability came from one optimistic model (Saltuno), not a consensus. Sharp Six presently projects LAR ~67%, while InnerPulse gives ~68% and PlayDecoded ~55%. Current Week 10 sportsbook pricing is not established; older −10.5 lines are only lookaheads. The Rams are therefore not a clearly safer Week 10 pivot than Indianapolis (~65–67% in two models), especially because using LAR eliminates our Thanksgiving LAR vs GB option (Sharp Six ~63%). Detroit vs Chicago (~57–58%) remains a weaker Thanksgiving fallback. Hold LAR for Thanksgiving unless new game-week data clearly reverses the comparison; reassess after the November 1 Colts game and any Taylor trade. Best-use scores reflect our planning judgment, not win probabilities. NFL Taylor report.

Nov. 1 afternoon injury/market verification: CBS reports Indianapolis is not actively shopping Jonathan Taylor, contrasting with the earlier trade-likelihood report; no trade is confirmed. Indianapolis lost 42–7 to Jacksonville (FINAL, Nov. 1), finishing with 243 total yards and three turnovers. Jonathan Taylor managed 23 rushing yards on eight carries. The result confirms the substantial Week 10 risk; pregame lookahead prices are not fresh postgame odds. Colts–Jaguars game report. Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out against Buffalo with a right throwing-thumb injury. Nov. 1 postgame material change: Baltimore's own report confirms Jackson needs thumb surgery and is heading to injured reserve, potentially for the remainder of 2026. Remove BAL from preferred Week 16; Houston at Philadelphia is an alternative only at the cost of Week 18 Houston vs Tennessee, and Detroit vs New York Giants conflicts with the Week 14 Detroit hold. No replacement locked. The Indianapolis collapse constitutes a material best-use downgrade from 68 to 58/100. Keep the selection provisional only; revisit LAR @ ARI (Thanksgiving save cost), DET vs NE (Week 14 save cost), and possible Week 9 SF / Week 10 SEA swap after first game-week markets. No verified cost-free improvement permits locking a replacement yet. The Bengals–Titans game has since ended: Cincinnati won 43–36 in overtime; Shared 1 advances to 8–0. Dallas lost 33–30 in overtime to Arizona, reinforcing the need to review Dallas's Week 11 selection when game-week spreads open.

Thanksgiving-risk watch (Nov. 1): NFL Network reports Green Bay star pass rusher Micah Parsons is targeting his season debut vs the Rams on Thanksgiving Eve (Nov. 25), not yet confirmed to play. That could reduce the Rams’ projected edge; the 63% holiday estimate should not be treated as an updated injury-adjusted betting price. Dallas vs Philadelphia is a closely ranked fallback, but saving Dallas requires replacing our Week 11 Dallas pick. Hold Rams as provisional while monitoring Parsons’ practice progression, potential Colts RB Jonathan Taylor trade, and updated holiday markets.

Other watch items: Seattle added Quenton Nelson and expects Zach Charbonnet back, but LT Charles Cross and WR Rashid Shaheed are out for Week 8. Denver placed RB RJ Harvey on short-term IR; he is eligible to return for Week 13 vs Miami. These do not yet change the saved SEA or DEN allocations.

New Week 14 injury watch · Nov. 1: Detroit All-Pro LB Jack Campbell was transported to hospital for evaluation of a neck injury suffered against Minnesota. His condition and timetable have not been confirmed, so the Lions vs Tennessee remain a provisional Week 14 hold without a numerical score change. NBC Sports report.

Research-only roadmap; the official entry record and personal draft are not overwritten by these recommendations. Thanksgiving research · Christmas research